words by Evan Thayer
Utah’s four snowiest months are December, January, February and March. We are now more than 75% of the way through these snowiest months of the year. These are the months in which we receive the vast majority of not just our snowfall, but total year-round precipitation in Utah. As such, it is “make or break” time for our season. Will we see our third consecutive above-average season in Utah? Or will the law of averages finally catch up to us?
Since we have only one month left of prime snowiness, I figured it would be a good time to take a look at where we stand in terms of snowpack.
Overall, the statewide average snowpack as of March 1, 2025, is sitting at 85% of median.
(You’ll have to excuse the data issue at the end of February. I think the computers forgot there are only 28 days in February and therefore recorded zero for a non-existent February 29.)
You’ll notice that after popping above the median (green line) in early December, this year (black line) has repeatedly fallen back below average. Once again, in late December and early January, we jumped up to near normal, only to fall behind over the rest of January. February, however, was a good month for snowfall and we were able to catch up again during the middle of the month to near normal. As you can see, it’s been a game of “catch up” all season with regard to staying close to our normal snowpack.
Alta-Collins, one of the best and longest data sites for snowfall records, reported 109.5” of snow over the month of February. This is approximately 20” more snow than a normal February. This February’s snow contained 11.47” of snow-water equivalent, which is the amount of water you’d get if you melted all 109.5” of snow. That is more than 4” of water more than an average February!
The numbers for February are undoubtedly good. Because of it, Alta Ski Area's 348” of snow at the end of February was 95% of average. More importantly, Alta has received 32.42” of water so far this season which is 106% of average. From a hydrological standpoint, we are actually having an above-average season in the Cottonwood Canyons.
However, other parts of Utah are not so lucky. You can see that as you head south in the state, the snowpack numbers drop dramatically.
While far northern Utah is above or near normal, central Utah is noticeably below normal, and far southern Utah is really struggling with snowpack numbers. It has not been the snowfall season southern Utah was looking for, but places like Brian Head have been able to spin all of their lifts and have consistently had the vast majority of their terrain open.
At the beginning of the season, you may remember we speculated that as a La Nina season, we might see the northern half of the state do better than the southern half. It turns out this has indeed been the case. The question now is, will our statewide average snowpack be able to overcome some of the lower numbers of southern Utah and finish the season above normal still?
Based on my calculations, we need to add an average of about 5” of water to our snowpack statewide between now and when the snowpack peaks. This usually occurs in early April. That means we have to get about double our normal snowfall statewide in order to finish above normal. Not easy, but not impossible.
The good news is that the first half of March looks very snowy with multiple storms likely to impact the state. There are some computer models that bring many FEET of snow to Utah between now and the middle of the month.
While it’s far too early to call it a “Miracle March,” this is the first step in bringing our snowpack back up to near-normal levels again and giving us a chance to perhaps get the third consecutive officially above-average season in Utah.
If we don’t manage to get there, don’t fret. We can take solace in knowing that, by definition, not every year can be above average. Utah will still manage huge seasonal snowfall totals approaching 500” which is more than many places can even dream of. It’s easy to feel spoiled and entitled when we enjoy so much of The Greatest Snow on Earth®.
Be sure to check back later next month when we wrap up the season and see if we were able to make the miracle happen!